PREDICTING BITCOIN’S PRICE TARGET IS DIFFICULT

PREDICTING BITCOIN’S PRICE TARGET IS DIFFICULT; BUT NOT FOR THE CROWD:  When reflecting on last week’s Bitcoin news headlines, it would seem difficult enough to predict the price direction of Bitcoin nevertheless the actual closing price a week later.  Last week included many headlines that could be construed as either wildly bullish or bearish for the value of cryptocurrencies. Most notably this included another chapter in the unending sage between the Security & Exchanges Commissions (SEC) and potential creators of ETF’s (Exchange-Traded-Products).  After considering the different proposals, each aimed at creating a Bitcoin ETF, the SEC disappointed the crypto bulls by denying all of the applications under review.  Additional news topics that created indirect price risk volatility for the price of Bitcoin included unflattering political headlines aimed at President Trump, failed China-U.S. trade talks, disappointment concerning North Korea’s progress on nuclear disarmament, as well as, a resurgence in the price of some precious metals.

The cumulation of all the news headlines made it for a challenging week for traders to individually predict the price of Bitcoin.  However, by leveraging the collective intelligence of the many individual predictions, TCL-Crypto crowd sourced price prediction for the closing price of Bitcoin at 5PM on Friday August 24th 5PM was a microscopic differential of only $2.66.  The Crowd’s prediction was $6,608.78 vs Bloomberg’s official closing price of $6,611.44.  Participants in the Crypto-Price-Challenge were permitted to begin the submission of predictions as early as 2-weeks prior to the end Friday.  All prediction needed to be submitted by the Wednesday prior to the Friday 5PM close.  This allowed a minimum of 2-full days of price risk or uncertainty when attempting to predict the closing price of Bitcoin.  In total 134 predictions were casted.

This is an impressive achievement by any measure.